The San Fransisco 49ers came out of the bye with a bang last week and will look to put that three-game losing streak behind them in Week 11 odds. They currently sit as a double-digit favorite vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Sunday’s meeting.
With a likely negative game script and a heavy passing workload on the way, is Mayfield’s rushing prop something bettors should be looking at to hit the Over?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Buccaneers vs. 49ers on November 19.
Buccaneers vs 49ers odds
Buccaneers vs 49ers predictions
Baker Mayfield has rushed for double-digit yards in six of his nine games this year and has consistently had three or more rushes in nearly all of his games this season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback currently has a rushing total of 10.5, with THE BLITZ projecting the former first overall pick to finish with 17.2. As a double-digit dog, the Bucs could be in pass mode early and often on Sunday.
The San Francisco 49ers got back on track after the bye last week in a 34-3 win over the Jaguars. That would be an ideal game script for Mayfield to increase his scramble opportunities.
Mayfield has also played a role in 7.5% of the team’s planned runs, accounting for 16 of them out of his total 38 rushes. While his scrambles have been more effective, he typically contributes with a designed run or two in each game.
The 49ers enter Week 11 as an 11.5-point favorite in a game with 12-mph winds and sunshine. With no run game to rely on, Tampa will be forced to up its pass rate in a game that it will likely trail early. The Bucs’ defense could also be without middle linebacker Devin White, who has been limited this week at practice, along with starting right tackle Luke Goedeke. Any loss on defense would only help to keep this a negative game script for Mayfield.
Tampa led for the majority of the game last week vs. the Titans and Baker ran three times for 13 yards. In games where Mayfield has thrown more than 30 passes, he’s averaging 5.0 carries and 19 yards per game. The Over of 10.5 is 5-1 in those six games.
The Tampa QB is also dealing with a banged-up thumb ahead for this one. Although Mayfield isn’t on the injury report, a hurt-throwing hand could possibly lead to an extra carry or two, especially considering the double-digit wind that is expected.
My best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Buccaneers vs 49ers same-game parlay
Baker Mayfield Over 10.5 rushing yards49ers team total Over 27.5Rachaad White 25+ receiving yards
+550 at bet365
This SGP is based heavily on the expectation of Tampa Bay playing from behind. That would increase rushing opportunities for Mayfield and keep Rachaad White in more of a pass-catcher role. White is averaging 57 receiving yards per game over his last four contests.
Meanwhile, the 49ers’ offense could go on a roll following a much-needed Week 9 bye to get healthy. Brock Purdy looked better last week, and if Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey are all going, nobody is stopping them.
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